HERE'S HOW THE FRENCH JOURNAL LE MONDE PREDICTED THE CURRENT SITUATION, IN AN ARTICLE PUBLISHED IN SEPTEMBER 2016. VOICI COMMENT LE JOURNAL FRANÇAIS LE MONDE AVAIT PRÉVU LA SITUATION ACTUELLE, DANS UN ARTICLE PUBLIÉ EN SEPTEMBRE 2016

English version

What is going to happen?

If the current turmoil looks like the scenario of 2009, the popular discontent is stronger. There is little hope, even among Ali Bongo’s supporters, that he can really undertake the necessary reforms for the country. On the opposition side, there are serious trends to take into account. The Gabonese opposition is historically weak, poorly organized, and often ready to compromise with the regime. Its leaders remain primarily politicians of the system and technocrats without a real popular base. This is the case of Jean Ping himself, or his last-minute allies during the campaign: Casimir Oye Mba, a former prime minister of Omar Bongo, and Nzouba Ndama, former president of the National Assembly.

In this context, it is not surprising that since 1960, no change movement has really appeared in Gabon. There remains the street pressure or the coup d'etat. The one perpetrated against Léon Mba in 1964 was repressed in blood. It is difficult to see today how the soft international protests of recent days, from Ban Ki Moon to François Hollande, would convince Ali Bongo to jeopardize his reelection by ordering the recount of votes. But Gabon, a "country where nothing ever happens", according to the local "street radio ", can always surprise us.